Self Assessment

Step1: Self Assessment (under development)

This section is about doing some analysis on your current circumstances. We developed a downloadable Excel spreadsheet that is pre-loaded with a list of things you might need if certain events occur. Make a copy and add/modify to meet your circumstances.

Electricity and Fuel: Virtually every modern convenience depends on "on demand" infrastructure (lights, phones, internet); fuel (gas, diesel, wood, propane, nat gas) etc.

  • Many forms of Public transport

  • Banking / Credit Cards

  • Delivery Trucks

  • Telecom / mobile phone systems

  • Internet / WIFI / Network infrastucture

  • Refrigeration (grocery)

  • Gas pumps

  • Traffic signals

  • Medical devices

Developing Resilience starts with analyzing our vulnerabilities and dependencies

This is very much a thought exercise designed to help you identify where you are most vulnerable, which should aid in you developing an action plan. To that end we prepared an Excel spreadsheet you can download and fill out. In a nutshell it helps you identify:

  • The items you depend on, and which ones in particular, if missing, would cause the most difficulty

  • It asks you to rank the level of impact on you / your family / your community if have periods where the infrastructure is not available, and in particular where things would get really challenging

  • ADD ITEMS TO THE LIST ~! You will have items that are important to you that are not on this list. Please add them.

When using the spreadsheet, any items you identify that are (1) Medium or above priority and (2) happen immediately or within a short period after an event(s) should be garner more attention. For example:

  • If you are dependent on a medical device then power might be a high priority.

  • Medications (insulin) are life-threatening if not available; or this medication must be refrigerated, then I suggest you develop and execute a concrete plan to avoid a disaster. Do you have a backup plan/distributor? Can you get and store additional medications in advance?

Probability / Event Types

The spreadsheet has a couple of extra columns where you can add your thoughts about probability of the event and then note how much you know about this topic.

  • Probability: "The likelihood that a given event will occur within a specified period of time." Probability is an estimate that is best based on a combination of history, facts, intuition, personal bias and gut feel. It is imprecise. When making your assessment, ask yourself how those factors play into your decision. Also consider the following:

    • Normalcy Bias: is a phenomenon of disbelieving one's situation when faced with grave and imminent danger, and overfocusing on the actual phenomenon instead of taking action. Some examples: "I don't believe that - that's baloney!" -

    • Denial: being dismissive without validating or recognizing your bias (this can also result from not wanting to believe it is true because if freaks you out.).

  • Even if a probability of an event is low, if the impact is high, then you may want to take mitigating action. A great example of this is fire insurance on your house. A fire is unlikely, but devastating if it occurs.

  • Black Swan Events: is something happens that no one saw coming and/or the /is or timing was entirely ambiguous. They tend to be infrequent, but high impact. Example: The 9-11 attack on New York. An F4 tornado in a city that rarely gets Tornados.

  • Caught Off Guard Events: "Should have seen that coming..." events that you could have forecasted if you had knowledge of the issue. For example, Warren Buffett (summer 2024) has sold a lot of his stock and in holding extraordinarily large amounts of money in "Cash" - probably t-Bills. What conclusions might you draw about the state of the financial markets given this knowledge? If you don't know Warren Buffet is - then look him up.

Be Informed